Science

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$350.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

20%

$314.9K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

$209.0K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

$198.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

$147.8K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$142.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

33%

$123.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

$117.5K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%

September 300%

$108.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<559%

5-635%

$104.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Successful splash down?100%

September 30100%

$64.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX59%

OpenAI0%

$61.4K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by...?

OOctober 1550%

OOctober 3150%

$41.7K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer18%

Hodge Conjecture32%

$36.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

$30.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

$28.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%

950–9990%

$24.1K Vol.•Jan 11, 2027

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

$20.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 8, 2027

New pandemic before 2028?

13%

$17.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

December 31, 20265%

March 31, 202750%

$17.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

11-398%

44-62%

$17.0K Vol.•Dec 1, 2026

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX76%

OOpenAI24%

$13.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Elon Bull Run Combo

$12.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 2, 2027

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

$12.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

November 303%

December 315%

$12.1K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202711%

$11.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 202627%

January 31, 202733%

$9.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

DDecember 31, 202626%

JJune 30, 202787%

$8.6K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202713%

$8.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2029

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

FFewer than 50%

550%

$8.1K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Plague pandemic in 2026?

$7.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How strong will Champi be?

Severe tropical storm or weaker3%

Strong4%

$7.6K Vol.•Oct 30, 2026

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

$6.9K Vol.•Ends Feb 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 20263%

December 31, 20269%

$5.9K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"0%

2-3"0%

$4.8K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

How strong will Koguma be?

Strong0%

Very strong100%

$4.8K Vol.•Oct 21, 2026

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

100-125mm0%

200-250mm0%

$3.9K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI57%

AAnthropic43%

$3.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 31100%

December 31100%

$3.4K Vol.•-

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

077%

113%

$3.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

BBelow 3.00 ft3%

33.00 to 3.99 ft11%

$2.9K Vol.•Dec 2, 2026

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202614%

December 31, 202752%

$2.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

BBelow 4,189.3 ft21%

44,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft78%

$2.7K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"0%

1-1.5"0%

$2.7K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

$2.4K Vol.•Ends Nov 1, 2026

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?67%

March 31, 202743%

$2.2K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

MMore than 550,00099%

MMore than 575,00098%

$2.1K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Science

99 markets

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$350.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

20%

$314.9K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

$209.0K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

$198.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

$147.8K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$142.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

33%

$123.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

$117.5K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%

September 300%

$108.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<559%

5-635%

$104.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Successful splash down?100%

September 30100%

$64.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX59%

OpenAI0%

$61.4K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by...?

OOctober 1550%

OOctober 3150%

$41.7K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer18%

Hodge Conjecture32%

$36.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

$30.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

$28.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%

950–9990%

$24.1K Vol.•Jan 11, 2027

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

$20.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 8, 2027

New pandemic before 2028?

13%

$17.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

December 31, 20265%

March 31, 202750%

$17.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

11-398%

44-62%

$17.0K Vol.•Dec 1, 2026

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX76%

OOpenAI24%

$13.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Elon Bull Run Combo

$12.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 2, 2027

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

$12.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

November 303%

December 315%

$12.1K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202711%

$11.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 202627%

January 31, 202733%

$9.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

DDecember 31, 202626%

JJune 30, 202787%

$8.6K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202713%

$8.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2029

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

FFewer than 50%

550%

$8.1K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Plague pandemic in 2026?

$7.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How strong will Champi be?

Severe tropical storm or weaker3%

Strong4%

$7.6K Vol.•Oct 30, 2026

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

$6.9K Vol.•Ends Feb 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 20263%

December 31, 20269%

$5.9K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"0%

2-3"0%

$4.8K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

How strong will Koguma be?

Strong0%

Very strong100%

$4.8K Vol.•Oct 21, 2026

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

100-125mm0%

200-250mm0%

$3.9K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI57%

AAnthropic43%

$3.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 31100%

December 31100%

$3.4K Vol.•-

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

077%

113%

$3.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

BBelow 3.00 ft3%

33.00 to 3.99 ft11%

$2.9K Vol.•Dec 2, 2026

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202614%

December 31, 202752%

$2.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

BBelow 4,189.3 ft21%

44,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft78%

$2.7K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"0%

1-1.5"0%

$2.7K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

$2.4K Vol.•Ends Nov 1, 2026

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?67%

March 31, 202743%

$2.2K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

MMore than 550,00099%

MMore than 575,00098%