PolyGate

World

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%

$2.6M Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva25%

Flávio Bolsonaro76%

$1.8M Vol.Oct 26, 2026

World

US x Russia military clash by...?

3%

$1.1M Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

2%

$862.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen47%

Jordan Bardella1%

6 more

$732.5K Vol.Apr 19, 2027

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%

Gavin Newsom9%

6 more

$731.2K Vol.Nov 8, 2028

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%

Republican Party10%

$638.9K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu28%

Naftali Bennett16%

6 more

$590.2K Vol.Oct 28, 2026

World

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%

$563.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

OOctober 3180%

NNovember 3042%

6 more

$552.5K Vol.Oct 31, 2026

World

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%

$544.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

5%

$449.2K Vol.Ends Apr 1, 2027

World

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

5%

$448.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%

D Senate, R House1%

3 more

$431.6K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate4%

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%

1 more

$406.0K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3137%

October 318%

3 more

$371.1K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

World

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

6%

$355.2K Vol.Ends Dec 31, 2026

World

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

3%

$337.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

September 23100%

September 25100%

1 more

$335.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

World

India strike on Pakistan by...?

10%

$333.6K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump2%

J.D. Vance49%

6 more

$330.7K Vol.Nov 8, 2028

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 3184%

December 3149%

5 more

$329.1K Vol.Dec 31, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%6%

6 more

$302.1K Vol.Oct 26, 2026

World

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

5%

$295.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

HHormuz Agreement; R Senate2%

HHormuz Agreement; D Senate2%

1 more

$288.0K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

World

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

6%

$273.6K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%

$255.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%

$255.2K Vol.Ends Nov 1, 2026

World

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

4%

$248.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Science

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 311%

June 30, 20279%

$225.5K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

World

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%

$215.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

3%

$198.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

7%

$198.1K Vol.Ends Dec 31, 2026

World

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

2%

$195.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

8%

$191.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

4%

$191.8K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

4%

$186.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

5%

$182.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

3%

$180.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

2%

$177.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump50%

Pope Leo XIV0%

6 more

$176.7K Vol.Apr 1, 2027

World

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

5%

$167.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

5%

$163.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

3%

$161.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

4%

$157.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

4%

$155.1K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 20266%

December 31, 202720%

$153.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2028