This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory durring the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
24H VOLUME
$53.5K
LIQUIDITY
$53.5K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (47)
Isekai Aug 2
not happening tbh
bonnieGoon Jul 23
המוסד בעצמו פירסם תיעוד שלהם פועלים באיראן מה זה השוק הזה
ArieLethal Jul 22
🤌
sdfghuy678 Jul 3
Odds remain low for confirmed Israeli ground incursions into Iran amid severe military constraints.
pink.impala Jun 22
On the Channel 14 network controlled by Netanyahu, it is reported that Iran is using "low-frequency electromagnetic weapons" to influence President Trump's decisions. "They have implanted these waves in his brain. There have been noticeable changes in the president's behavior. It's like telepathy, but electromagnetic. The Russians have it, the Chinese have it, and the Iranians have it too."
CHISCARU May 1
Proposal, please
0x94071699986A3aA6B58340cF4B4a342A0aF15F8D-1775916217928 Apr 30
Asking the real questions 😂
IMHO Apr 21
Crazy stuff.
MisuBoy Apr 19
why not US ground operation in Iran ? i would buy yes
0xC426932DE953750522Cb1Ebc1137cb2033C4343C-1746630460507 Apr 7
If the deadline is exceeded and U.S. strikes on Iranian energy plants and railways are carried out under Trump, the probability of Israeli ground activity on Iranian soil would become considerably high.
sntgsntgsntgsntg Apr 7
Yeah, with intelligence
0x473cf7CC2aBF1E78033F13c647dE1Fc341040F94-1771088258313 Apr 5
Foreign reports have claimed that Israeli commandos participated in the operation. However, an IDF source stated to the Post that these reports are completely false.
Sorena Apr 5
so this likely will be no
Sorena Apr 5
iran int is never wrong but israel officialy might just deny this as they usually rather trump have the spotlight
coplanshayne Apr 5
is it the end of the day yet? :)
Mozauma Apr 5
Credible Israeli sources are denying this and it won't make any sense. You think Americans are incapable of pulling this without help?
Greenlife1305 Apr 5
Wait a few hours my friend:)
OnlyMoneyG Apr 5
love you honey
Mozauma Apr 5
[link removed] denial
Greenlife1305 Apr 5
[link removed]
Mozauma Apr 5
I am buying no. Enjoy the loss.
OnlyMoneyG Apr 5
so buy no and stfu
Mozauma Apr 5
Why would people believe that hundreds of US special forces need Israeli commandos to hold their hands for a rescue mission of an American pilot?!
Mozauma Apr 5
Israeli sources flatly deny this and it doesn't make sense. Ther are hundreds of US troops and no need for Israeli help
Mozauma Apr 5
Foreign reports have claimed that Israeli commandos participated in the operation. However, an IDF source stated to the Post that these reports are completely false. Enjoy
Greenlife1305 Apr 5
Is it a yes?
FEAROFWHAT Apr 5
Buy more then
OnlyInGodWeTrust Apr 5
easy yes
OnlyMoneyG Apr 5
Ok
Cast-1770483895067 Apr 5
They also said that two special operations units were involved (76 and 51)
OnlyMoneyG Apr 5
אמרו שהשתתפו רק במידע מודיעיני לא?
INSIDERfromISRAEL. Apr 5
ITS A YES! WILL PREPOSE AT THE END OF THE DAY
Sorena Apr 5
Source says Israeli commandos helped rescue US pilot in Iran - Iran International
Sorena Apr 5
[link removed]
taerv534 Apr 5
No someone there actually bought a large amount of YES up past 80c. Money and shares actually moved at that level.
FrankyFourFingers Apr 5
the bug is a disaster, but if it makes you feel any better, the price swings in question were very likely fake and only caused by the exploit scammer cancelling everyone's orders . hopefully gets fixed soon in any case
taerv534 Apr 3
If you leave a buy or sell limit order on the book, and an exploiter decides to target that market, then your order gets involuntarily cancelled for you. And the worst thing is this only happens during major swings, so you miss it, and the exploiter can use the cleared book to get his orders filled instead. It is so much more disasterous than it sounds, it basically stops you from selling (or buying) during major moves that might reverse later, and now (as I have here) you've missed it and are fucked.
taerv534 Apr 3
No, all world events or tech markets during major happenings, a variety of them of all different natures. I am aware of "Added Context" cancellations, this is not that. In this, you get Notifications saying "Limit Buy/Sell Failed". The Notification used to link to polygonscan for the transaction the exploit hit, but I now notice they've removed that...
0x580Ca22b913344735De688f7E271cC21d72C6D83-1764911203858 Apr 3
What's the exploit? Can you elaborate for a polymarket noob :p?
TESTENAOMEXA Apr 3
Could these markets you got screwed in be Sports markets or others related to an event with a set date and time start/happen?
taerv534 Apr 3
It's happened to me like a dozen times during the past month, and several times before that. Again, robbing me of *multiple* life-altering fills. I initially thought it was something I was somehow doing wrong, but now I've seen it happen on big frontpage markets and other people complaining about the same thing happening to them. It is a real unpatched Polymarket exploit that they refuse to acknowledge or do anything about. Exploiters can just involuntary cancel everybody else's orders, whenever they want, at any time. It's crazy this isn't a bigger deal.
taerv534 Apr 3
Escalating ladder sells for ~1000 shares of YES. Filled up to 69c, partially filled at 74c, and then the exploiter hit and everything above that was involuntarily cancelled (most of the order was at 79c, the guy buying bought @ 81c average, so I am absolutely certain I got fucked by this)
Cungly Apr 3
Ah that fucking sucks
Cungly Apr 3
I presume you had a bid that would have been filled? How much/what price?
taerv534 Apr 3
I've lost lifechanging amounts of money to this shit multiple times over the past month, and Polymarket refuses to acknowledge this exists much less do anything to patch it.
taerv534 Apr 3
Fucked again by the unpatched Polymarket exploit where attackers can cancel other users' limit orders at will
Anones Mar 17
Never…
