Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

VLamarca 20h ago

Wow you bought 1 hour ago, what a maniack 😂😂

VLamarca 20h ago

You attracted some people valetecaolho, time to fight back

mezenes Oct 14

I think we can both agree that the only option for 'Yes' is Moraes resigning; that is basically what you are betting on. Personally, I don't believe that will happen in one and a half months without him putting up a fight first or forcing a big agreement (as Brazilians would say, an 'acordão'). I honestly believe it looks very mispriced on the surface, but this bet also has a lot of liquidity, which makes me believe it might not be mispriced after all. Perhaps in the hallways of Brasília, they know something we don't...

VLamarca Oct 14

You made me buy more no personally lol, I almost bought more yesterday. I will try to move more funds to buy more no now

EdgeSniperBR Oct 14

Vc não entende nada de Brasil meu velho kkkk

valetecaolho Oct 14

Believe it or not, what motivates me the most is to evaluate Polymarket's hability to truly work as an information market, even if there is not enough liquidity. Thus the experimento. It is clear that my belief is currently at odds with those few that are paying attention to this issue. As I keep buying, one of the two will happen. 1) I will atract enough attention and those new players might agree with my point of view 2) My losses will teach me a good lesson in intelectual humbleness. :-)

VLamarca Oct 13

I am very intrigued by your commitment lol. I still would take the other side of the bet as I dont think there is time for that. Also Moraes personality is to always fight back. Even if he were to give up, there is still a high chance this happens in 2027

halostryx Oct 13

>Fachin arquiva pedido de investigação e afastamento de Moraes NADA ACONTECE FEIJOADA INFINITA

valetecaolho Oct 13

An additional comment. I am not predicting that the Senate will fast track an impeachment trial in two months but that, once the inevitalble end game is given, it will be in everybody's interest, including Moraes, to reach the fastest and least traumatic acomodation (apologies for any mispellings).

valetecaolho Oct 13

@DarkFish Hello, DarkFish. I am buying because I thing the contract is mispriced. As you can observe, all my contracts are for sale at 40c, which I think is still is a fair price. No big econometric models behind my position. Pure scenario analysis. We already have an elected senate in for which a majority has been elected with a mandate to Impeach Moraes. More likely than not, Flávio will be elected in two weeks. One can envision some sort of acommodation between the new government and the Supreme Court. However, as far as Moraes goes, it is very hard to envision him remaining as a supreme court justice. If you follow any interview, either by Flávio or by any of his supporters, Moraes's departures is always presented as a non-negotiable point. Whether it will happen before the end of the year or not is indeed, a valid prediction point. My estimation is at 50%-50%. I would gladly reduce my exposure at 40%, but not at a lower value.

valetecaolho Oct 13

Hello, DarkFish. I am buying because I thing the contract is mispriced. As you can observe, all my contracts are for sale at 40c, which I think is still is a fair price. No big econometric models behind my position. Pure scenario analysis. We already have an elected senate in for which a majority has been elected with a mandate to Impeach Moraes. More likely than not, Flávio will be elected in two weeks. One can envision some sort of acommodation between the new government and the Supreme Court. However, as far as Moraes goes, it is very hard to envision him remaining as a supreme court justice. If you follow any interview, either by Flávio or by any of his supporters, Moraes's departures is always presented as a non-negotiable point. Whether it will happen before the end of the year or not is indeed, a valid prediction point. My estimation is at 50%-50%. I would gladly reduce my exposure at 40%, but not at a lower value.

DarkFish Oct 13

Beware this “valetecaolho”! He is buying Yes positions but it is not sustainable…i think he will sell soon

0x8bC7e7a31565CD6b5cEaE32E7c6bFf8F1f0d8bfB-1774706208011 Oct 10

Será que talvez o Faccin, Fux e Carmen não dão um jeito pra salvar seus lados da bancada pró impeachment do senado não? Estou pensando em comprar, mesmo que seja pra vender na alta.

VLamarca Oct 10

Demoraram 5 meses pra fazer o impeachment da Dilma. Vai sobrar 1 meszinho só pra tirar o Moraes pós eleiçao

VLamarca Oct 10

Demoraram 5 meses pra fazer o impeachment da Dilma. Vai sobrar 1 meszinho só pra tirar o Moraes

Cassian37 Oct 9

Capaz de tirarem o Moraes, pro Lula indicar mais 1

RayBrazil Oct 8

antes do ano ele nao sai, apenas se renunciar.. e conhecendo o xandao ele nunca vai fazer isso

halostryx Oct 6

F E I J O A D A dito isso, em 2027 o impeachment é a primeira pauta

flanelinha Oct 6

Quem tem cú tem medo. Ditador Moraes já encerrou os processos do Allan e do Eustáquio e reduziu a pena da mulher do batom na estátua.

itxsaw2 Sep 15

🍕🍕

itxsaw2 Sep 15

Ala Moraes tratorou, pode ter certeza que vão rifar o Mendonça ainda

Dgsv4 Sep 15

tirem seu dinheiro disso. Alexandre acabou de declarar que vai votar

itxsaw2 Sep 15

Se continuar nesse preço depois do julgamento vou hipotecar meu apto

Lorry2002 Sep 15

Moraes foraaaaaaa

keiozwe Sep 15

Deveria ter apostado mais. Como fui duvidar da Justiça brasileira?

EdgeSniperBR Sep 15

Vcs são muito inocentes

Enriquevz Sep 15

Virou pizza pqp

itxsaw2 Sep 15

O sistema é bruto

itxsaw2 Sep 15

Seu aliado simplesmente levantou e foi em bora, bizarro

itxsaw2 Sep 15

Abandonaram o mendonça kkkkkkkk 😂

beta9 Sep 15

Foi tudo pra o ralo pqp

itxsaw2 Sep 14

Quem vai assumir a presidência do stf dq 1 anos ? 🤭

h0ip0ll0i Sep 14

Ele cai antes de ocupar a presidencia do STF, principalmente se Flavio for presidente, mas ano que vem. Cenario atual vejo 0 chances dele cair esse ano

Enriquevz Sep 14

Vão tirar, se não tirarem agora depois vão tomar no cu porque o Alexandre será o presidente do STF no próximo ano, é agora ou nunca

Enriquevz Sep 14

Não foram tirados, o presidente do STF precisa assumir a relatório para que o Mendonça não seja impedido de votar

EdgeSniperBR Sep 14

Muuuuuu

0x8EF4e85eD9C9CC2AeA6280f007168DB59B76a816-1759067401146 Sep 13

Parece que o único gado aqui é você. Por causa de idiotas como você que esse país não cresce.

h0ip0ll0i Sep 13

Relatoria do Master e do INSS foram tiradas das mãos de André Mendonça e foram para o Fachin! 🍕🍕🍕

h0ip0ll0i Sep 13

Vc acha? Como?

EdgeSniperBR Sep 11

Compra mais então

Boss.B Sep 11

ele vai sair mesmo kkkkkkô coisa boa

brzcfh Sep 11

polymarket pilantra de não abrir 2027....

Enriquevz Sep 11

GG Alexandre se fudeu kkkk

P4ul00 - 7870 Sep 11

Carmen Lucia é jurista, o voto dela ja é nosso

EdgeSniperBR Sep 11

Espera mais uns 2 dias e tudo vira pizza e teus 1.1k viram pó

P4ul00 - 7870 Sep 11

perdeu tudo kkkkkkkkkkk

EdgeSniperBR Sep 11

Coisa linda fazer grana em cima do gado kkk

Cassian37 Sep 5

Hahahaahahahhaha go on. this corrupt judge will fall

h0ip0ll0i Sep 4

Sim, mas acredito que nao nesse governo. Talvez se Flavio ganhar, mas ai so pro ano que vem

ruimdemais77 Sep 4

Se não ficar ele manda a pf te 💀