A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24H VOLUME
$1.7K
LIQUIDITY
$1.7K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (34)
jsdclahs Oct 12
A question: If Prop 40% gets over 50% of Yes votes (say 55%), but either Prop 41 or Prop 42 get a higher number of Yes votes (say Prop 41 gets 7 million Yes votes vs Prop 40 6 million), which means Prop 40 will not become law, will this market still resolve to Yes?
Applem Oct 8
Sup
TheArtOfTACO Oct 5
Defeating prop 40 unfortunately doesn't purchase billionaire loyalty. They'd leave anyway.
vsv09 Oct 3
Bro is clearly a multimillionaire btw
vsv09 Oct 3
Unlikely
vsv09 Oct 3
''While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.'' Libertarian theory also emphasizes not taxing people
bernardbulletin Sep 17
Tax billionaires out of existence
betpro3 Aug 31
This is not what this market is about though
Geolibertarian Aug 1
This is underpriced. Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.
0xEFB90c1feCfFB3874aB75b1E73Ee81bb87874383-1758826993606 Jul 17
Interesting point, the voters will decide and I think we know which way they will lean!
AliKhamenei Jun 27
difference is that the democratic party leaders like Gavin Newsome opposes the billionaire tax, but I doubt he will support the poison pill bill
polymark Jun 27
Could this increase the odds for this market? If im reading the rules of the market correctly, it could resolve Yes because the measure passes during the election but the wealth tax could still not take effect if either of the poison pill initiatives pass. Meaning, those opposing it could direct resources into the making sure the other initiatives pass instead.
polymark Jun 27
Seems as if those opposed to it believe there's a serious chance it could pass: "Two efforts that were crafted to sink the proposed billionaire tax — dubbed poison pills — also qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. One would bar new state taxes on personal property, while the other prohibits any new taxes being exempted from existing state spending rules and to be regularly audited. If the billionaire tax proposal is approved by voters but either of the other proposals receives more votes, the tax measure would be voided."
polymark Jun 27
Sure, but there's been plenty of measures & candidates that won that were not the most well funded. The 'poison pill' initiatives indicate, along with the revealed preferences of certain wealthy people (e.g. Sergey Brin moving out of the state), that there's a serious possibility the wealthy believe it could pass. Newsom & other establishment Dems opposing it does hurt it tho
AliKhamenei Jun 27
support drops drastically for any ballot measure as the election gets closer. Billionaires are going to be dumping millions into ad campaigns
AliKhamenei Jun 27
Can we have a 100% Wealth Tax for Gavin Newsome please?
polymark May 18
Polling consistently has 50 to 60% support. Can anyone steelman the case for why they think it won't pass? I get the sense that, given ballot measures aren't compulsory to vote on, there's a much larger number of people who are passionately in favor of this vs the number that are against it. (From the Wikipedia page for Polling data)
iutwpfal May 3
Yes but no but irrelevant
kkss198x May 2
the fixed assets—factories and infrastructure—remain. As long as engineers and skilled labor stay, production can be restarted. While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.
mever Apr 27
If the rich all leave, will the poor still have job opportunities?
thechainsmokers Mar 2
2 million dollar volume is not gonna cover a billion dollars buddy
adonpoli Feb 12
another pump ?
Eia Feb 12
Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..
Eia Feb 12
Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?
nick-turani Jan 15
this will violate both the california state constitution and the united states constitution: 14th amendment due process, retroactivity, right to travel, armstrong vs US, then 5th amendment takings, forced liquidation. this is free money, no chance this can proceed from both state and federal levels
Obamnna Jan 10
Asking questions like this is why you are poor
kyscott - 6062 Jan 5
Why aren't any billionaires using this market to hedge?
Riles Jan 2
So, California is run by big tech billionaires, so who really is going to pay?
0x8eF79Ab0Ea2E277CB87c7A43AB6507814a544E2A-1759336835678 Jan 2
Got to protect those billionaires
NoSteinNoGate Jan 1
What caused the pump and what the dump?
NadyaSuleman Dec 31
"one-time" lmao
thecaricature Oct 26
Just one time communism, I am sure...
Audrey2.0 Oct 24
let me buy no at a reasonable price
dontshowmyname Oct 24
what kind of communist bs is this
