This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$24.3K
LIQUIDITY
$24.3K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
SaturnStormCube 15h ago
He scrolled down to the comments. yesman44 was calling margaretduluth a coward. margaretduluth replied that yesman44 would be broke by Christmas. honestbob wrote: “thanks for playing.” BrightStars asked them all to pray on it, quoting Psalm 133: “Behold, how good and how pleasant it is for brethren to dwell together in unity!” aenews2 stared at the psalm for some time, not understanding it. margaretduluth’s point stayed with him, though. He contemplated what it would feel like to arrive at Christmas having provided $168 of liquidity to a man from Ohio. Perhaps the Wire Fox Terrier had always been a sentimental pick, he mused. Besides, pastordave had been adamant that this was the Bergamasco Sheepdog’s year. After a moment, he liquidated the 450 shares held by imtoolit, leaving him net No by $57, and placed a limit order for No on quietbuyer. Then he replied to the original question: “Net Yes. But honestly, I can see both sides.”
SaturnStormCube 15h ago
Someone in the comments asked aenews2 which side he was on in the market on whether Best in Show at the Westminster Dog Show would go to a Wire Fox Terrier. He’d have to check. It had been a busy month. aenews2 had long since lost track of his accounts, although he suspected he was close to reaching triple digits by now. He opened his tracker and went through them one at a time: aenews2, imtoolit, vlek, margaretduluth, quietbuyer, grandmaspoon, ironworkerslocal9, yesman44, pastordave, lukewarmtake, honestbob and the rest. 83 in total. He would most likely reach 100 by the new year. After a few minutes adding up his positions, he found he was net Yes on the Terrier by $168. He also discovered that 80% of the accounts in the market were his. Most of the Yes was ironworkerslocal9. Most of the No was lukewarmtake. They had been trading with each other since August. The remaining 20% was mostly held by a man from Ohio who had been trying to exit his position for the last week.
Rex416 Oct 15
SaturnStormCube reveal yourself dm me
filedescript0r Oct 14
Нет, пыпа не сможет воевать с НАТО
658658 Oct 14
A border alert doesn't establish a clash
Kamala2024 Oct 13
A stray incident could create serious ambiguity
CW1975 Oct 11
Bloomberg: poland-probes-possible-attack-planned-on-premier-defense-chief // tensions dont reduce ...
nickthechopper Oct 8
It was not an attack on a NATO military. The target was a civilian grain carrier
johnsic Oct 7
Armed men from Belarus crossed into Latvia A group of masked men attempted to force around 20 illegal migrants across the border. The men were armed and threatened Latvian troops. Latvia’s armed forces said the incident was particularly demonstrative and aggressive compared with many previous provocations. Several hours later, the men managed to enter EU territory, damaged an electrical distribution box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus, Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava said.
guacamole.nz Oct 6
The market is about Russia accidentally hitting NATO ground. That's always a realistic, but minor risk.
CondeDeBelloch Oct 6
russia just attacked two ships traveling from Romania (a NATO member) to Turkey (a NATO member) and, conversely, from Turkey (a NATO member) to Romania (a NATO member). They were attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria (a NATO member). Both ships are owned by Turkish (NATO member) companies. Time to pay.
johnsic Oct 6
This is a major escalation by Russia. Russia is sinking merchant ships from NATO countries in the exclusive economic zones of NATO countries. Neither vessel had made a recent port of call in Ukraine. One ship was sailing to Turkey from Romania, and the other was sailing to Turkey from Egypt.
Mr.Frog🐸 Oct 6
Drones attacked two commercial vessels near the coast of Bulgaria: one sank, and the other caught fire, — BGNEWS Bulgarian sailors are conducting a large-scale rescue operation in the Black Sea waters east of Cape Saint Athanasius and the town of Byala following the UAV attack. This is the first attack on vessels in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
jvro Oct 6
Yes, but that’s what people think. IMO it’s not gonna happen anytime soon
Raskell Oct 5
No it wouldn't unless it was a military ship
johnsic Oct 5
A Turkish cargo ship carrying grain has just been hit 20 nautical miles off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea by a drone 13 of the crew are missing. If its Russian drone this might qualify.
jvro Oct 2
Dude, good luck losing money 🤠
guacamole.nz Oct 2
The way I see it, October market has about a 12% chance of happening
jvro Oct 2
Remember, nothing ever happens. Market rules are tricky, but still has low change of YES.
NotaJoe Sep 30
Ukraine is the only country putin wants to conquer, also putin
octoppp Sep 26
yep its scam
NoSteinNoGate Sep 25
You know what a question is?
anti4rist Sep 25
cope
0xC9052e6f4fAbD841895D8C36aD183866aAC8Af09-1767891052372 Sep 24
The conditions here make very little sense and leave so much room for ambiguity and dispute - if a russian ballistic missile is shot down over Poland but its supposedly intended for Ukraine that doesn't count since its targetting a 3rd party? But shooting down a reconnaissance UAV counts? Make it make sense...
Colorgreen Sep 24
Ha Ha, so buy YES
guacamole.nz Sep 24
Someone might propose yes on some incident. Like the Lithuania drone and then Uma their way through.
12121110101 Sep 23
what
12121110101 Sep 23
a
Edem1 Sep 23
what do you mean
laureman Sep 22
scam market. Be aware NO holders
CondeDeBelloch Sep 22
Because orcs cannot help themselves. It's not "if", it's when they will attack.
Ban4ik Sep 22
какие 20% на октябрь уже вы обалдели что ли 😭😭😭
jjjjok6666 Sep 19
3 WW incoming
ShadowOG26 Sep 19
No military clash is gonna happen, you are loosing it all
PIkk Sep 17
the rules need careful reading here
jjjjok6666 Sep 17
impossible
Donjon Sep 17
I'm hoping escalation remains avoidable
octoppp Sep 16
Dude, a few weeks ago a Russian cruise missile crashed into a field in Poland. A few days ago, a Russian drone was spotted in Lithuania. A few weeks ago, a Russian drone tried to blow up a transport plane at an airport in Germany. lol
octoppp Sep 16
The administration stubbornly ignores it; they only acknowledge the market if a missile lands—accompanied by a packet of documents confirming it came from Russia.
finalyhere Sep 15
dont believe that
Nicolasro91 Sep 15
Want to know it too
jjjjok6666 Sep 15
why it raised so high today lol?
aspepnips Sep 15
how likely is it to be 100% identifitied as operated by russia? if lithuanian authority claims "most likely russian" is that enough to qualify?
ArthurGreen Sep 15
THIS IS POTENTIALLY BIG. "A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuania shortly after midnight on Tuesday, the Lithuanian national crisis management centre said. The drone, which likely entered from Belarus, was shot down near Pratkunai village in southern Lithuania, near Kaunas, the second-largest city, the centre’s spokesperson said. ITS ORIGIN IS YET TO BE DETERMINED, he said." (Source: Internazionale) So this is exactly the type of event where a later forensic identification could change things dramatically and in favor for a yes-resolution!
0x2E557b6d82D31c810D52F2dD694eD2f754E8Fb2A-1777496641023 Sep 14
LITHUANIA JUST SHOT DOWN A UAV FROM RUSSIA 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️‼️
NoSteinNoGate Sep 13
A Russian drone impacting on nato territory is not enough?
cgtb Sep 9
living in Poland
lottonakamoto Sep 8
On the afternoon of September 8, residents of the Romanian cities of Iași and Vaslui received an RO-Alert message warning of a possible drone crash or its fragments. The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations issued the warning to residents of the aforementioned cities at 4:36 PM local time, Ziare reports. "There is a risk of objects falling from the air. Remain calm! Take shelter in basements or civil defense shelters. If shelter is not available, stay inside your home, away from windows and external walls. Estimated duration: 90 minutes," the message stated.
lottonakamoto Sep 8
Днем 8 сентября жители румынских городов Яссы и Васлуй получили сообщение RO-Alert с предупреждением о возможном падении дронов или их фрагментов. Генеральная инспекция по чрезвычайным ситуациям выпустила предупреждение для жителей упомянутых городов в 16:36 по местному времени, пишет Ziare. "Существует вероятность падения объектов из воздушного пространства. Сохраняйте спокойствие! Укройтесь в подвалах или убежищах гражданской защиты. В отсутствие укрытия оставайтесь внутри дома, подальше от окон и наружных стен. Предполагаемая продолжительность: 90 минут", — говорилось в сообщении.
12beduins Sep 5
ukr getting wrecked, only chance is to somehow involve NATO
