This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$351.9K
LIQUIDITY
$351.9K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
MrJung 4h ago
You mom boom
Orcishroler Oct 15
I didn't know so many Americans hated money
Orcishroler Oct 15
The problem is, unlike Brazil, the right-wing retard is in office
Orcishroler Oct 15
$1 is going for $0.63, make it make sense
Orcishroler Oct 15
At losing money?
polmar001 Oct 14
dumbocrat trying to replicate kamala's prank
EverSupreme7 Oct 13
No bro, JD or Rubio next. Just needed a man like Trump to get the dirty work done.
EverSupreme7 Oct 13
Bet on it
EverSupreme7 Oct 13
You dunno wtf you are talking about.
EverSupreme7 Oct 13
There is no fckn way that democrats sweep!
arvinlleva94 Oct 13
I am GOD
NicolasBoy Oct 13
You are insane.
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
6. Runoff rule may contradict “scheduled as of Oct 31” rule For Senate: Only elections scheduled as of Oct 31 count. But runoffs (which are not scheduled until after the general election) do count. This creates a technical contradiction: Runoffs are not “scheduled as of Oct 31,” but they still determine seat attribution.
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
5. House fallback rule (Speaker’s party) can contradict seat majority math If no party wins 218 seats: Control is assigned to the party of the Speaker. But the Speaker can be elected by: A coalition, Cross-party deals, A minority party with outside support. Thus: The Speaker’s party may not be the party with the most seats. This is a logical contradiction between “seat control” and “leadership control.”
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
4. Vacant Senate seats attributed to “most recent member’s party” may contradict real control Example contradiction scenario: A seat is vacant. The most recent member was a Democrat. But the governor appoints a Republican replacement before the new Congress begins. The rules say: The seat counts as Democratic for market resolution. But the actual Senate would have a Republican occupying the seat. This is a real contradiction between rule-based attribution and real-world control.
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
3. Independent caucus rule can contradict the “majority” rule If independents do not announce caucus intent by Jan 4: They count toward no party. This can create a scenario where: No party reaches a majority, No party reaches exactly half, The VP belongs to one party, But independents could later caucus with a party in reality. This creates a possible divergence between market resolution and actual congressional control.
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
2. Senate fallback uses “first selected President Pro Tempore,” but House fallback uses “first elected Speaker” This is not a contradiction, but it is a structural asymmetry: Senate fallback: President Pro Tempore House fallback: Speaker Both are leadership positions, but: The Speaker is elected by the House majority. The President Pro Tempore is traditionally the senior member of the majority party, but not always guaranteed to reflect caucus control in rare edge cases. This creates a potential mismatch in how “control” is inferred.
cjalaniz123Blogs Oct 12
6 Contradictions and logical inconsistencies: Below are the actual contradictions or ambiguous areas in the rules. 1. Senate “majority” vs. “half + VP” creates a logical gap The rules say: A party wins control with a majority of voting seats. If no party wins a majority, then a party with exactly half + the Vice Presidency wins control. Contradiction: If a party has exactly half, it does not have a majority. But the rule treats “half + VP” as equivalent to majority control. This is not a contradiction in practice (it mirrors real Senate tie‑breaking), but it is a logical exception that breaks the strict definition of “majority.”
Jimbobo Oct 12
We need a DEMOCRAT sweep so that we can get that orange turd impeached for dragging our sons and daughters to die for Israel
Edvine Oct 12
Down 2k
drachenlord1710 Oct 12
yeah... -5k lmao
drachenlord1710 Oct 12
Trump double jerking Bibi and Ben gavir while wasting US taxpayer money on Iran
JustTheFacts Oct 11
I'm surprised dem sweep isn't higher. Insider Advantage overestimated the GOP by 5+ last midterms and they predict Dems taking the Senate 53-47.
polymark Oct 9
Brazil is a very different situation and more to do with the specifics of the Bolsanaro family. The midterms are much more of a test of how voters feel about the economy and the GOP than about Trump. Trump's base will still show up but the independents will be the deciding factor
0xb352EdAEeA9EA21Ba161aa7e6eeac074C5b1c550-1775972413308 Oct 7
trump is female
EverythingAlwaysHappens Oct 6
good goys
AnEggplant Oct 6
Me when I go upstairs at the frat party
ChetChetwick Oct 5
Yeah the resurgence of the right wing in Brazil and Spain, and the increasing momentum in places like France and Germany is one of the reasons why I'm not buying that a sweep is going to happen. If they take the House it's gonna be by a razor thin margin. Right wingers do tend to lie in polls, don't forget, and the ones that don't answer polls always come home on Election Day. Trump is far more popular than the approval polls seem to suggest, both domestically and internationally.
crypto-basenji Oct 5
are u retarded
RUMBLED Oct 5
I typically my bets to the end. Not a trader. There's just greater risk here than people think.
AnEggplant Oct 5
And yet you haven't sold your "overpriced" asset... 🤔
JustTheFacts Oct 5
Too many of the right wing retards only show up when Trump is on the ballot.
JustTheFacts Oct 5
Nah, it's more about people get fed up with whatever party has all the power. In the US, that's the GOP. Plus Dems were understimated last midterms going by the state polls.
RUMBLED Oct 5
I think 60/40 is about the right price. 67 cents is too high for the Dems. People need to remember that right wing retardation is often a lot more popular than the polls suggests. It's playing out in Brazil right now as we speak.
InsderEpstien Oct 4
hope the fist one to fall is musk
InsderEpstien Oct 4
Hope the first one to fall is musk after a sweep
drachenlord1710 Oct 4
I think you would have better ods throwing you money into a slot machine lmao. look at this guys trades
drachenlord1710 Oct 4
Reps wont even win Alaska and Texas lmao. Its TROVER
SamuraiStevo Oct 4
shhhh brotha, he's paying us 😋
AnEggplant Oct 4
…by yeeting these fascists out of every level of government
Fujii Oct 3
nice negative 2k brother you MAGA people sure are smart
EverSupreme7 Oct 3
MAGA!
EverSupreme7 Oct 3
You are clueless
EverSupreme7 Oct 3
Catch a wake up tard!
Jimbobo Oct 3
I'm no American but VOTE DEMOCRAT from now on because Trump is making your country a laughing stock
AnEggplant Oct 2
Hey chat if Kansas is a tossup that means it's RR right
DannyG0 Oct 2
trump is sexy.😇😇😇
DannyG0 Oct 2
trump is sexy.
Fujii Oct 1
i wonder if JD has to change Trumps diaper or its someone else...
dPredictor Sep 28
he is not listening to your sorry ass, why don't you shut the fuck up and stop spamming shit, you don't even have any skin in the game
